A Few Common Survival Myths in Disaster and End-of-the-World Fiction

As a fiction writer, I am convinced that readers are intimately aware authors often navigate a delicate balance between storytelling and factual accuracy. While some diligently research every aspect of their work to infuse realism, others intentionally diverge from facts to enhance narrative elements. This divergence allows creative freedom, fostering imaginative worlds and scenarios unbound by strict reality. Writers may manipulate timelines, locations, or scientific principles to serve their plot, creating captivating scenarios that open exciting narratives. Ultimately, the art of fiction lies in the mastery of bending reality, crafting tales that resonate emotionally, even if it means sacrificing strict adherence to the world's truths.

Science fiction fans are far more accepting of wild departures from the laws of physics and science than those who find pleasure in techno-thrillers. Finding a believable balance in survival and 'collapse-of-civilisation' fiction like THE VALLEY is essential. An author must inject enough authenticity to keep die-hard survivalists engaged but leave enough characters alive (and for long enough) to keep readers turning pages in a gripping, flowing story despite the inclusion of a few survival myths. While researching THE VALLEY, I constantly attempted to balance familiar and popular survivalist-fiction tropes and reality. Here are a few of the myths I explored as I dived down rabbit hole after rabbit hole.

Survival Myth: How long will we be driving our cars and trucks?

Warner Brother's Mad Max

We're all familiar with the iconic Mad Max version of the future where, years after the fall of civilisation, people are still scavenging fuel from the gas tanks of abandoned cars to roam the wastelands. Unfortunately, the reality of the chemical degradation of various fuels is likely to disappoint the petrol-heads during the apocolypse.

Petrol, or gasoline, typically has a shelf life of about three to six months when stored in purpose-designed containers under optimal conditions. Various factors, such as temperature, exposure to air, and preserving additives, can improve stability and extend its useful life a little, but certainly not for years. Using old or degraded petrol in vehicles leads to fatal engine issues that the average human would struggle to overcome. So, you probably won't be roaring around the wasteland in your supercharged V8 coupe, Im afraid.

Diesel, stored properly, has a longer shelf-life than petrol. Stored in a sealed container and kept cool, diesel can last anywhere from six to twelve months without significant degradation. However, old diesel loses its combustibility and quickly accumulates water and contaminants, causing microbial growth and sediment, all of which can render an engine unusable quickly. You might keep your diesel truck running a little longer than your gas-guzzler, but not by much.

So, within twelve months of an apocalyptic catastrophe, anyone left after the fall of civilisation as we know it will have to find an alternate mode of transport and mechanical advantage that doesn't rely upon the internal combustion engine.

Survival Myth: How long will the lights stay on?

Toba-Montrose Run of River Hydro Intake (Image:Alterrapower)

The modern electrical grid demands a constant balancing act to match the electricity generated with the amount consumed. There's a great deal of automation, but it still requires human intervention to maintain these complex systems. Power consumption would drop abruptly in most apocalyptic scenarios where the population numbers plunge. Once the crisis has exceeded the ability of automated systems to compensate, the grid voltage will rise and likely trigger various safeguards too technical for me to understand, let alone expand upon. These safeguards would initiate a host of measures to protect the infrastructure, including disconnecting grid sections and automated shutdown. Once operations have exceeded defined parameters, whether the generating plant relies on fossil fuel, hydro, or nuclear sources, these safety systems and protocols will likely shut down power generation quickly.

Coal-fired and other fossil-fuel-burning plants need constant feeding, and even if that process is automated, when the hoppers and storage tanks empty, the breakdown in supply chains would mean there would be nothing left to burn for power generation, even if automated safety systems didn't shut generation down long before. Remember, those computerised safety systems must protect the infrastructure from damage. They'll be conservative and likely kick in early in any crisis scenario.

Wind turbines and other renewable sources might maintain the capacity to generate power initially, though, over time, they would break down without maintenance. Like all the others, these sources need complex equipment to get their electricity to the grid, requiring constant manual intervention. It's also important to note that wind is an intermittent energy source that needs a backup supply plan (usually fossil fuel-generated) to ensure a reliable, continuous electricity supply.

Hydroelectric plants, being the least technical of the power-generating plants, are likely to maintain the ability to generate electricity for the longest time without comprehensive human intervention. However, like all other power sources, complex and maintenance-heavy systems are required to get the power to the grid and keep it there.

The odd, canny survivalist with enough electro-mechanical savvy might keep a small, local generator running on spare parts for a while. However, powering a whole community would take an extraordinary set of circumstances and a significant pool of skilled humans.

Survival Myth: How long will the medicine last?

Image: HHM Global

I was surprised to learn that the expiration date on my paracetamol does stand for something, but not what I thought it did. Since 1979, legislation has required drug manufacturers to stamp an expiration date on their products. The expiry date is the extent to which the manufacturer can guarantee full potency and safety.

Most of what we know about medicine expiration dates comes from a US Food and Drug Administration study at the military's request. With a large and expensive stockpile of drugs, the military wanted to know if it really needed to throw out its old medicine and pharmaceuticals. What they found from the study is that 90% of more than 100 drugs tested, both prescription and over-the-counter, were perfectly good to use even 15 years after the expiration date.

So, the expiration date doesn't necessarily indicate a point at which the medication is no longer effective or has become unsafe to use. This doesn't mean you should ignore the expiry dates in your medicine cabinet. We're not living through the apocalypse, so it's best to make sure you're putting the most effective and safest version of any medication into your body. A drug's effectiveness may decrease over time, but much of the original potency remains even a decade after the expiration date. Excluding nitroglycerin, insulin, and liquid antibiotics, most medications are as long-lasting as the ones tested by the military. The real challenge will be replacing vital medicines once pharmaceutical companies stop producing and distributing them.

Cars, electricity, and medicine are only a brief snapshot into the research behind the awesome survival story contained in THE VALLEY. You can grab a copy from my website or at https://amzn.asia/d/96tEj74.